Andrew Healy Ph.D. – Professor of Economics, Loyola Marymount University and Senior Strategist for Player Personnel, Cleveland Browns

Any reader of fivethirtyeight.com has surely noticed that similar analytic techniques can be applied to understanding sports and politics. In a world with lots of uncertainty, those projections also can be wrong – but fivethirtyeight came closer to understanding the 2016 election than other sources did. At its best, focusing on data can at least keep us from following herd opinion.

Andrew Healy is known among academics as an incisive scholar of voting behavior. He has co-authored important articles on research methods, such as telephone interviewing; on efforts to increase voter turnout; on partisan bias; and especially on retrospective voting – the tendency of voters to base their choice on the election-year economy. He recently published a piece in the leading political science journal about economic development, mobility, and political discontent in Pakistan. But he also has a deep interest in sports, and is on leave from his professor job now to work for the Browns.

So what do the two kinds of analysis have in common, and what is different? All analysis requires good measures; is that harder for football or voting? Analysis involves assessing patterns and probable relationships between the past and future; is that harder for voting or football? Each certainly involves getting second-guessed a lot! Join us for a discussion that should illuminate three topics – politics, football, and statistical research.

All best regards,
Joe White
Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy and Director, Center for Policy Studies

About Our Guest

Andrew Healy earned his B.Sc. in Applied Mathematics and B.A. in Political Science from Yale University, and his Ph.D. in Economics from M.I.T. He served as a consultant to the World Bank before joining the Economics faculty at Loyola Marymount University, and was promoted to Professor in 2015. As author or co-author his articles have been published in many leading journals, including the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, and Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Before joining the Browns he also served on the staff of the Football Outsiders statistics and analysis website.

Where We Meet

The Friday Public Affairs Lunch convenes each Friday when classes are in session, from 12:30 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. Our programs are open to all and no registration is required. We usually meet in the Dampeer Room of Kelvin Smith Library.

* Kelvin Smith Library requires all entrants to show identification when entering the building, unless they have a university i.d. that they can magnetically scan. We are sorry if that seems like a hassle, but it has been Library policy for a while in response to security concerns. Please do not complain to the library staff at the entrance, who are just doing their jobs.

The Dampeer Room is on the second floor of the library. If you get off the elevators, turn right, pass the first bank of tables, and turn right again. Occasionally we need to use a different room; that will always be announced in the weekly e-mails.

Parking Possibilities

The most convenient parking is the lot underneath Severance Hall. We regret that it is not free. From that lot there is an elevator up to street level (labeled as for the Thwing Center); it is less than 50 yards from that exit to the library entrance. You can get from the Severance garage to the library without going outside. Near the entry gates – just to the right if you were driving out – there is a door into a corridor. Walk down the corridor and there will be another door. Beyond that door you’ll find the entrance to an elevator which goes up to an entrance right inside the doors to Kelvin Smith Library.

Schedule of Friday Lunch Upcoming Topics and Speakers:

November 24: Thanksgiving Break

December 1: The Stakes in “Tax Reform.” With Daniel Shoag, Visiting Associate Professor of Economics.

December 8: Environmental Policy in the Pruitt EPA. With Catherine J. LaCroix J.D., Adjunct Professor of Law.