Dear Colleagues:

What on Earth Will Happen in the Midterm Election on November 6???? Will there be a “blue wave?” If so, will it be blunted by a “red electoral map?” The map is red because the Democrats (or independents who caucus with them) hold 26 of the 35 Senate seats up for a vote, and ten of those 26 states voted for President Trump. The race for the House is also on a red map because many of the Democrats are packed into relatively few districts, so Republicans have an advantage in most districts. Democrats probably have to win the national vote by at least five percentage points in order to win a majority of the House.

Polls might not predict so well because in some elections there aren’t many, while pollsters have to make assumptions about who will vote, and that is especially uncertain this year. Will angry Democrats turn out in large numbers to reject the policies of the incumbent President and Congress? Although both parties have lower turnout in the midterms, usually the losers in the presidential election do decline less. But economic indicators are good while President Trump and the Republican media are stoking anger that could motivate Republican voters.

So please join us as Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy Joe White will explain the peculiar dynamics and uncertainties of this election and guess about control of the U.S. House and Senate. Center for Policy Studies Associate Director Andrew Lucker will cover state of Ohio races, and Adjunct Professor Mike Wager, who knows about House elections from experience, will review the Ohio contests for U.S. Congress.

All best regards,
Joe White
Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy and Director, Center for Policy Studies

About Our Guest

As Director of the Center for Policy Studies, Joe White organizes and usually moderates the Friday Lunch discussions, as well as sponsoring 3-6 other public programs each year. His appointment as Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy is in the Department of Political Science, and he also has a secondary appointment as a Professor in the Department of Population and Quantitative Health Sciences. His research focuses on federal budget politics and policy; health care, especially cost control and reform; the politics of social insurance programs such as Medicare and Social Security; and differences between rich democracies’ health care systems. He is author or co-author of three books and about six dozen articles, with his most recent work being on relations between the president and Congress in federal budgeting and on budgeting for healthcare programs around the world.

Michael Wager represents private and publicly-held entities in mergers and acquisitions, securities offerings, corporate finance, corporate governance and regulatory compliance (including SEC and CFTC matters), and strategic growth initiatives. He was the chair of a Cleveland-based private equity firm and has served as adviser to, and director of, several private and public companies, including as lead director of a Dutch-based, NYSE-listed private utility company.

As adjunct professor of political science, Michael teaches courses on judicial politics and urban politics. He is also a past chair of the board of the Cleveland-Cuyahoga County Port Authority and has served on the board of the Clean Ohio Council – Ohio’s $400 million Brownfield Revitalization Fund. He was the Democratic party nominee for the House of Representatives in Ohio’s 14th District in 2014 and 2016.

Andrew Lucker is the Associate Director of the Center for Policy Studies and an Adjunct Assistant Professor of Political Science at Case Western Reserve University. Dr. Lucker is an active participant in the American Political Science Association, the Southern Political Science Association, and is past president of the Ohio Association of Economists and Political Scientists.

Where We Meet

The Friday Public Affairs Lunch convenes each Friday when classes are in session, from 12:30 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. Our programs are open to all and no registration is required. We usually meet in the Dampeer Room of Kelvin Smith Library.

* Kelvin Smith Library requires all entrants to show identification when entering the building, unless they have a university i.d. that they can magnetically scan. We are sorry if that seems like a hassle, but it has been Library policy for a while in response to security concerns. Please do not complain to the library staff at the entrance, who are just doing their jobs.

Parking Possibilities

The most convenient parking is the lot underneath Severance Hall. We regret that it is not free. From that lot there is an elevator up to street level (labeled as for the Thwing Center); it is less than 50 yards from that exit to the library entrance. You can get from the Severance garage to the library without going outside. Near the entry gates – just to the right if you were driving out – there is a door into a corridor. Walk down the corridor and there will be another door. Beyond that door you’ll find the entrance to an elevator which goes up to an entrance right inside the doors to Kelvin Smith Library.

Schedule of Friday Lunch Upcoming Topics and Speakers:

November 9: Too Much Trust? Older Patients and Their Doctors. With Eva Kahana, Distinguished University Professor and Pierce T. and Elizabeth D. Robson Professor of Humanities, Department of Sociology.

November 16: Questions and Answers About Recycling Plastics. With John Blackwell, Leonard Case Jr. Professor Emeritus, Macromolecular Science and Engineering Alternate Location: Room LL06A-C, Lower Level, Kelvin Smith Library.

November 23: Thanksgiving break.

November 30: Just How Powerful is Putin? With Stephen Crowley, Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science, Oberlin College.

December 7: Union Decline in a Populist Era: The Experience of Western Democracies. With Chris Howell, James Monroe Professor of Politics, Oberlin College.