China’s Precarious Rise

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Center for Policy Studies
Public Affairs Discussion Group
China’s Precarious Rise

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Paul Schroeder, Ph.D. – Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science

Friday February 15, 2019
12:30-1:30 p.m.
Dampeer Room
Kelvin Smith Library
*
Case Western Reserve University

Dear Colleagues:

In 2008 John Ikenberry wrote about “The Rise of China and the Future of the West.” He suggested that rise, “will undoubtedly be one of the great dramas of the twenty-first century.” “But,” he added, “exactly how this drama will play out is an open question. Will China overthrow the existing order or become a part of it?”

Any answers must begin with judgments about China’s political, economic, and social conditions. Susan Shirk at the time described China as a “fragile superpower,” with a leadership worried that the nation’s development could threaten the Communist Party’s control. Five years ago, David Shambaugh argued that China’s global presence was more broad than deep, and China was more of a “partial power.” Around that time Xi Jinping became first General Secretary of the Communist Party and then President of China – and began responding to such concerns.

Since then, Xi has consolidated power in striking ways, including being re-elected in 2018, having his ideology or “thought” referenced in the party’s constitution, and the two-term limit on serving as President abolished. His thought emphasizes one-party rule, a “great rejuvenation” of China on the world stage, combining Marxist and Confucian views, and the need for a decisive and visionary leader – Xi.

Xi has a vision for increasing China’s power and stabilizing (or from another view, freezing) its political order. But its economy is being challenged by President Trump’s policies and cheaper competitors, and insisting on loyalty and appealing through nationalism, though typical, do not sound like reliable ways to manage broad social change. So what are the prospects, both for China’s governance and its foreign policy?

All best regards,
Joe White
Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy and Director, Center for Policy Studies


About Our Guest

Paul Schroeder brings a remarkable blend of practical experience, academic training, and wisdom into the classroom. He earned his Ph.D. from Ohio State in Chinese Politics in 1987, writing his dissertation on regional power in the Chinese political system. Before embarking on his Ph.D. studies, he was a journalist covering police, city, county and state government for several Ohio newspapers. While doing his dissertation research, Paul represented the State of Ohio Department of Development in Wuhan, China. He then joined the staff of the National Committee on U.S. ― China Relations in New York, managing programs in law and economics.

From 1995-2007, Dr. Schroeder was managing director of East-West Trade Development, Ltd., a firm that assisted American businesses with international trade opportunities, especially with China. He also co-founded Families of the Fallen for Change, a lobby group advocating a political solution to the Iraq war, and as part of that has worked with senior members of Congress to develop policy alternatives. Paul has taught at CWRU for over a decade, offering courses on Chinese politics as well as on other aspects of international relations. This semester he is teaching POSC 374, Politics of Development in the Global South, and POSC 370H, China’s Foreign Policy. He brings to our classroom remarkable experience in teaching, scholarship, working within China and within the foreign policy process of the United States.

Where We Meet

The Friday Public Affairs Lunch convenes each Friday when classes are in session, from 12:30 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. Our programs are open to all and no registration is required. We usually meet in the Dampeer Room of Kelvin Smith Library.

* Kelvin Smith Library requires all entrants to show identification when entering the building, unless they have a university i.d. that they can magnetically scan. We are sorry if that seems like a hassle, but it has been Library policy for a while in response to security concerns. Please do not complain to the library staff at the entrance, who are just doing their jobs.

Parking Possibilities

The most convenient parking is the lot underneath Severance Hall. We regret that it is not free. From that lot there is an elevator up to street level (labeled as for the Thwing Center); it is less than 50 yards from that exit to the library entrance. You can get from the Severance garage to the library without going outside. Near the entry gates – just to the right if you were driving out – there is a door into a corridor. Walk down the corridor and there will be another door. Beyond that door you’ll find the entrance to an elevator which goes up to an entrance right inside the doors to Kelvin Smith Library.

Schedule of Friday Lunch Upcoming Topics and Speakers:

February 22: The Real Problems With Ohio’s State Tax System. With Tatyana Guzman, Assistant Professor in Public Finance, Cleveland State University Levin College of Urban Affairs.

March 1: A European Perspective on American Politics. With Patrick Chamorel, Senior Resident Scholar, Stanford University Center in Washington, DC. Alternate Location: Guildord House First Floor Parlor, 11112 Bellflower Road, Cleveland.

March 8: Victims, Perpetrators, and the Problem of Domestic Violence. With Laura Voith, Assistant Professor, Jack, Joseph and Morton Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences.

March 15: No Discussion, Spring Break

March 22: Germany’s New Party Politics? With Andreas Sobisch, Associate Professor of Political Science, John Carroll University.

March 29: Punishment Beyond Prison: The Effects of Collateral Sanctions. With Michael Shields, Researcher, Policy Matters Ohio.

April 5: Budget Blues: Yes, It Can Get Worse. With Joe White, Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy.

April 12: The Polar Silk Road? With Kathryn C. Lavelle, Ellen and Dixon Long Professor of World Affairs.

April 19: Managing in a Trumped-Up Economy. With Mark Sniderman, Executive-in-Residence and Adjunct Professor of Economics, Weatherhead School, and former Executive Vice President and Chief Policy Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

April 26: What Do We Know About the Health and Safety Effects of Marijuana: Medical, Recreational, or Otherwise? With Theodore Parran Jr. MD, Isabel and Carter Wang Professor and Chair in Medical Education and Associate Director, Rosary Hall at St. Vincent Charity Medical Center.

February 10, 2019

If you would like to reply, submit items for inclusion, or not receive this weekly e-mail please send a notice to: padg@case.edu

Upcoming Events

Disparities in the Diagnosis and Care of Children with Autism

A discussion with Dr. David Mandell, Kenneth E. Appel Professor of Psychiatry at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Tuesday February 26, 2019, 11:30 a.m. – 1:00 p.m., Ballroom A, Tinkham Veale University Center, 11038 Bellflower Road, Cleveland, OH 44106. Co-sponsored by the Schubert Center for Child Studies and the International Center for Autism Research and Education (ICare) Register here online.

Almost two decades of research demonstrates that autism is diagnosed later in children of color than white children, and that service experiences and outcomes often are worse as well. Dr. David Mandell, Kenneth E. Appel Professor of Psychiatry at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, will review these disparities and how they have changed (or not) over time, discuss the causes of these disparities, and offer some policy and practice solutions to ameliorate them.


How French Are France’s Problems?

A Global Currents Discussion with Patrick Chamorel, Ph.D., Senior Resident Scholar at the Stanford Center in Washington D.C., Thursday February 28, 2019, 5:00 – 6:30 p.m., Mandel Center for Community Studies, Room 115, 11402 Bellflower Road, Cleveland, OH. This program is made possible by the generous support of Ms. Eloise Briskin and sponsored by the CWRU Center for Policy Studies. Free and open to the public.

The “yellow vest” demonstrations in France began in November as a response to a proposed gas tax increase. They quickly expanded to more violent protests against a wide range of perceived injustices perpetrated by non-responsive elites and the government of President Macron.

The events fit a long French tradition of how to influence an unresponsive state. But many of the grievances, such as rising income inequality and worries about national identity, do not seem peculiarly French at all. So to what extent is the French conflict a harbinger for other countries, and to what extent is it peculiarly French? Patrick Chamorel earned both his university degree and Ph.D. from Sciences-Po in Paris and holds a Master in Public Law from the University of Paris. In the 1990s he served as a Senior Advisor to the Ministry of Industry and in the Policy Planning Office of the Prime Minister. But for more than two decades he has lived mainly in the United States, studying and teaching about U.S. politics, French politics, and transatlantic relations.

February 2019

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