Friday May 7, 2021
12:30-1:30 p.m.
Online Zoom Meeting
Dear Colleagues:
Last Tuesday, The Financial Times headlined that, “China set to report first population decline in five decades.” The subhead added, “Officials are preparing response to census data that should have been released five weeks ago.”
On Thursday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics issued a statement that, “According to our understanding, in 2020 China’s population continued to grow.” It gave no further details. An A.P. story added that, “the unusual decision to respond to the report by The Financial Times reflected the issue’s political sensitivity.”
Western environmentalists might wonder why a bit of population decline would be such a bad thing. In 1979, Teng Hsiao-Ping proclaimed the famous “one child policy,” so as to ensure that, “the fruits of economic growth are not consumed by population growth.” But, as Professor Lihong Shi explained to this group five years ago, the Chinese Communist Party abandoned that policy in 2015 because of worries that are common in more wealthy countries: that there will be too few workers to support retirees, and a stagnant or declining labor force could impede economic growth. Abandoning the one-child policy, however, is looking like too little, too late. China’s population of women of prime child-bearing age is shrinking, due to effects of that policy, while the costs of child-rearing make it look unattractive in many cities. So projections have long included an acceleration of population aging and slowdown or decline in population; but last week’s maybe-news means that those events are coming more quickly than expected.
The big difference between China and other countries, such as South Korea, is that China is growing old before growing as rich as those other countries. As a recent conference document states the case,
“China has come halfway through its economic and social modernization. It is about to reach high-income levels, but has yet to become a developed economy; it is urbanizing rapidly, but rural roots remain strong; education levels are rapidly improving, with the country becoming a technological leader in some areas, while overall productivity remains low; women are increasingly postponing marriage, but not foregoing it; traditional care for the elderly is in flux, but has yet to disappear… How China addresses the multiple dimensions of ageing will determine its future growth rate, the health of its public finances, the shape of its families and villages, and even its politics.”
The political challenges range from the fact that some measures that would look reasonable in international comparisons (such as raising a very low retirement age) might be less than popular, to very different dimensions of the question – such as whether China’s leaders view a shrinking population as both a sign that China’s not such a rising power, and a visible policy failure.
Whether or not the FT was right, or the government is lying, China looks like it is headed towards a declining population, and sooner rather than later. Is that really happening? Why? How is the government responding, and how could it respond? Is this a good thing or a bad thing, and how? Demographic trends lie beneath many major changes in politics, economics, and social life. Join us as Professor Shi shares her expertise for discussion.
Signing In
This semester’s discussions will begin at 12:30 p.m., the usual time. The meeting will be set up as from Noon to 2:00 p.m., so people are not all signing in at the same time and to allow for the discussion to run a bit long. Each week we will send out this newsletter with information about the topic. It will also include a link to register (for free) for the discussion. Every Monday the same information will be posted on our website: fridaylunch.case.edu.
If you register, you will automatically receive from the Zoom system the link to join the meeting. This week’s link for registration is:
https://cwru.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwscuyhrjsvEtevbyykiz5yFC7itcueRxuk
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.
Please e-mail padg@case.edu if you have questions about how the Zoom version of the Friday Lunch will work or any other suggestions. Or call at 216 368-2426 and we’ll try to get back to you. We are very pleased to be partnering this semester with the Siegal Lifelong Learning Program to share information about the discussions.
Summer Break!
This will be the last “Friday Lunch” of Spring 2021 semester. Our discussions will resume with the first week of Fall 2021 semester, on August 27.
It seems quite likely that we will be able to resume in person, so with cookies again. That would be nice, but it also has been nice to be able to include lots of people, some of them old friends, by Zoom. We will have to figure out if there is a way to continue that. “Dual delivery” with some people in the room and others on Zoom, does not work well for classes. But there may be work arounds, and I will be looking for them. At a minimum it should be possible for the main talk to be broadcast; the problem is how to have a discussion in which people on Zoom can hear the people in the room. I’ll appreciate any suggestions!
I would also appreciate suggestions about speakers and topics. I know we will try to have some discussions of Life After (I hope) COVID. But please send directly to me any ideas, to joseph.white@case.edu.
Until we meet again, please be healthy and safe and even have some fun in the Summer.
Best wishes,
Joe White
Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy and Director, Center for Policy Studies
About Our Guest
Lihong Shi studies reproductive politics and family and gender relations, particularly reproductive choice and family change under China’s birth-control policy. She examines an emerging reproductive choice in rural China where a large number of couples have decided to have only one daughter even though the modified policy allows them to have a second child. By delving into the socioeconomic factors contributing to this drastic reproductive decision, she looks at significant changes occurring within the Chinese families. She is also interested in demographic consequences of China’s birth-control policy, such as population aging and sex ratio imbalance. |
