Thomas Sutton, Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science and Director, Community Research Institute, Baldwin-Wallace University

Dear Colleagues:

As far as I know, the state of Ohio will conduct Democratic and Republican primaries on May 3.

We don’t quite know what those primaries will determine.

They would normally choose candidates for the state legislature and U.S. House of Representatives according to new districts drawn after the 2020 census. But there is, let’s say, a bit of controversy about those districts. The most recent map adopted by Republicans on the Ohio Redistricting Commission is so similar to a map rejcted by the state Supreme Court that Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor suggested the map-writers could be held in contempt of court. But the state court is not scheduled to hear arguments about the maps again until after the May 3 primary, raising the possibility that even if it strikes down the districts, it might let them take effect for the November election, and only demand a new map for 2024. One reason is that it’s hard to see how the Court can force action, including charges of contempt of court, any more than it could for the numerous DeRolph decisions about financing of education in Ohio. Yet the federal courts have now also become involved, in response to a Republican lawsuit, and might jump in by sometime next week and demand or impose a new map. State officials claim they could not set up a new primary on August 2 (the last date allowed under current state law) unless maps are determined by April 20.

Yet it seems clear that the May 3 primary will choose Democratic and Republican candidates for Senator and the party tickets for Governor plus Lieutenant Governor. Each race is uncertain because there has been very little polling and the early polling has a lot of undecided voters. Nevertheless, most observers seem to expect Governor DeWine to be renominated, and congressman Tim Ryan to win the Democratic primary for Senate.

But the other two races – who the heck knows? The two main Democratic candidates for Governor are experienced and popular big-city mayors: John Cranley of Cincinnati and Nan Whaley from Dayton. They have raised similar amounts of money and though Whaley has the advantage of being endorsed by Senator Sherrod Brown, Cranley is from a larger city.

In Cuyahoga County we are seeing ads for those two Democrats, but can hardly avoid the television blitz from the five main candidates for the Republican nomination for Senate: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Jane Timken, and J.D. Vance. Aside from Dolan, they all are competing to show loyalty to Donald Trump; and all are running against immigrants and China and “critical race theory” and in favor of police. Polling has been very scant and the polls that exist suggest a slight advantage to Gibbons.

Both sets of nominations are extremely important. Republicans should be favored for both offices, but there are arguments also for the Democrats having a chance for each. The candidates matter.

For our next-to-last meeting of the semester, it therefore seems timely to discuss the upcoming election. Although nobody can be sure what’s going on, Tom Sutton certainly has a better idea than I do! For many years he has kept his finger on the pulse of the Ohio electorate through the Baldwin-Wallace polls, and he is a leading expert on the state’s elections. So I look forward to his thoughts on both the primaries and whatever the state of play about redistricting is as of that day.

Signing In

The “Friday Lunch” has been convening each Friday that classes are in session during Fall and “Spring” semesters since 1989. Regrettably, after more than three decades meeting in person and eating lunch (or at least coffee and cookies) together, we had to take our gatherings online after the pandemic hit in 2020.

I have been hoping we could do some sort of dual-delivery, in-person and online combination, before this semester ends. In the March 25 talk, however, Professor Mark Cameron said he would not. So I guess we will continue on Zoom. Our discussions begin at 12:30 p.m., the usual time. Even when we resume in-person meetings, I guess in August, we will set it up so people can participate by Zoom. Each week we will send out this newsletter with information about the topic. It will also include a link to register (for free) for the discussion.

If you do not get the newsletter, you should also be able to get the information each Monday by checking http://fridaylunch.case.edu/. When you register, you will automatically receive from the Zoom system the link to join the meeting. Please note that we will open the meeting at Noon so people aren’t all signing on at once, but the speaker starts at 12:30.

This week’s link for registration is:

https://cwru.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJIpdOuppjorG92UB5jlikqFwXO5GOLaTRN2

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

Please e-mail padg@case.edu if you have questions about how the Zoom version of the Friday Lunch will work or any other suggestions. Or call at 216 368-2426 and we’ll try to get back to you. We are very pleased to be partnering this semester with the Siegal Lifelong Learning Program to share information about the discussions.

Best wishes for safety and security for you and yours,

Joe White
Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy and Director, Center for Policy Studies

About Our Guest

Dr. Thomas Sutton directs the Community Research Institute (CRI), which engages students in applied research with local and regional nonprofit and government agencies. He coordinates the public & nonprofit management major/minor and the Africana studies minor at Baldwin Wallace University. He also develops and coordinates innovation and entrepreneurship programs for the Center for Innovation and Growth (CIG).

Sutton serves as independent political analyst for WEWS Channel 5, providing periodic analysis of local and national political developments and events.

Sutton also has 13 years of prior experience in nonprofit management, including work in civic education, services for homeless persons, and programming for juvenile offenders and at-risk youth.

Schedule of Friday Lunch Upcoming Topics and Speakers:

April 22: The Present and Future of Cryptocurrency. With Peter Zimmerman, Ph.D., Research Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.