Friday April 14, 2023
12:30-1:30 p.m.
Meeting Both In-Person and by Zoom
Dampeer Room, Second Floor of Kelvin Smith Library*
Case Western Reserve University
Dear Colleagues:
Our topic this week needs no explanation. The war in Ukraine has created nearly 14 million refugees from a nation of 44 million souls – 6 million displaced internally and 8 million having fled the country. Counting casualties is notoriously difficult, but western officials in March were estimating Ukraine had suffered 120,000 soldiers killed or wounded, while Russian military casualties exceeded 200,000. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin appears to be committed to a war of attrition, using Russia’s much greater population base to grind down Ukraine’s resistance. In mid-March the UNHCR estimated that Russian attacks on civilian targets and the collateral damage from military clashes had killed over 8,000 and wounded nearly 14,000 civilians.
Sanctions on Russia’s economy triggered a significant recession, though nothing close to a depression. The economic consequences in Ukraine have been far worse. In the words of a recent RAND report, “Ukraine has already suffered levels of damage not seen in Europe since World War II, and it took 20 to 30 years for Germany and the United Kingdom to rebuild after the war.” It cited a World Bank estimate from October that the cost of repairs already far exceeded Ukraine’s pre-war GDP. That GDP fell by about a third in 2022.
That is what the war has been, but what will happen next? It is possible to imagine a Russian (or Soviet) leader backing down from an invasion because of mounting casualties, public concern, and the stakes not seeming worth the trouble. That’s what Mikhail Gorbachev did about Afghanistan. But Putin clearly is much more committed to his Ukraine war and less influenced by letters from mothers of dead soldiers. There has been growing speculation about Putin possibly losing control of his regime, but certainly not much viable protest. In spite of the failures of the invasion, it is fairly easy to tell a story about why Putin could think he will still succeed. There are so many factors: Ukraine’s ability to continue its resistance, whether it will get the support it needs from its western allies, whether other countries will help Russia enough to compensate for its weaknesses, and politics within Russia. Please join us as Professor Crowley joins us by Zoom to share his expertise and judgment.
In-Person and Virtual Attendance
In order to make it easy for people to protect themselves and still participate, the meetings can be attended on Zoom. Participants can register for each meeting in the same way they did for the past two years. The link is posted below.
The discussion begins at 12:30 p.m., but the room should be open no later than Noon. We try to have beverages and refreshments set up soon after that. Participants should be able to sign on to Zoom also by Noon. But please remember not much will be happening online until the talk begins at 12:30 pm. Please also be prepared to show identification when entering Kelvin Smith Library.
Zoom participants should speak up when asked for questions or comments, or submit thoughts through Zoom’s chat function. Please keep yourself muted until you are choosing to speak.
Each week we will send out this newsletter with information about the topic. It will also include a link to register (for free) for the discussion. When you register, you will automatically receive from the Zoom system the link to join the meeting. If you do not get the newsletter, you should also be able to get the information each Monday by checking http://fridaylunch.case.edu Then if you choose you can use the contact form on that website to request the registration link.
This week’s Zoom link for registration is:
https://cwru.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwoc-CrrT8iHtF_SyuszRValpjEpb-NAcxj
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.
Please also e-mail padg@case.edu if you have questions about arrangements or any suggestions. Or call at 216 368-2426 and we’ll try to get back to you. We are very pleased to be partnering this semester with the Siegal Lifelong Learning Program to share information about the discussions.
Best wishes for safety and security for you and yours,
Joe White
Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy and Director, Center for Policy Studies
About Our Guest
Stephen Crowley is a scholar of the politics of Russia and Eastern Europe, with a focus on labor and the political economy of postcommunist transformations. His teaching centers on Russia and Eastern Europe, peace and conflict studies, revolutions, and globalization.
Professor Crowley’s recent book, Putin’s Labor Dilemma: Russian Politics between Stability and Stagnation, (Cornell University Press) examines the specter of looming labor and social unrest as Russia’s leaders contemplate how to rejuvenate the country’s struggling economy. It explores Putin’s populist rhetoric and symbolism, the challenges posed by Russia’s “monotowns” and other hard-hit industrial centers, and the potential for protest stemming from either declining living standards or painful structural reforms.
* Kelvin Smith Library requires all entrants to show identification when entering the building, unless they have a university i.d. that they can magnetically scan. We are sorry if that seems like a hassle, but it has been Library policy for a while in response to security concerns. Please do not complain to the library staff at the entrance, who are just doing their jobs.
Schedule of Friday Lunch Upcoming Topics and Speakers:
April 21: After Dobbs: So Far. With Jessie Hill, J.D., Judge Ben C. Green Professor of Law.
April 28: China. With Paul E. Schroeder Ph.D., longtime Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science. |
