| Ohio in the 2020 Presidential Election |
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Thomas C. Sutton, Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science and Director, Community Research Institute, Baldwin Wallace University |
Friday February 7, 2020
12:30-1:30 p.m.
Dampeer Room
Kelvin Smith Library*
Case Western Reserve University
Dear Colleagues:
Can a Democrat carry Ohio in the 2020 Presidential Election?
Can a Democrat get close enough to suggest she or he could win states sort-of-like Ohio?
And which Democrat seems likely to win the March 17 primary?
Ohio has long been seen as a swing state in presidential elections, and so been ground zero in the campaigns. In recent years it has trended a bit more Republican than the rest of the country, but it still has not supported the losing national candidate since Richard Nixon in 1960. President Trump’s margin in 2016 far exceeded his national support, but President Obama in 2012 received nearly the same share of the two-party vote (51.5%) in Ohio as he did nationally (51.9%).
One of the huge questions about the 2020 election, therefore, is whether President Trump’s big victory in Ohio was a blip that the Democrats can counter, or whether it represented trends among a group of voters – in one common description, “white working class,” especially rural whites – whom Trump can attract again to win not just Ohio but other key states. Another is whether the Democrats will nominate a candidate who can appeal to those voters – or turn out others.
We can’t know of course, but we can take a good look at the evidence. And hardly anyone could have a better view than Professor Sutton, whose Institute will be conducting a series of polls in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin during the 2020 campaign, with the first results available for his talk.
All best regards,
Joe White
Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy and Director, Center for Policy Studies
About Our Guest
Dr. Thomas Sutton directs the Community Research Institute (CRI), which engages students in applied research with local and regional nonprofit and government agencies. He coordinates the public & nonprofit management major/minor and the Africana studies minor at Baldwin Wallace University. He also develops and coordinates innovation and entrepreneurship programs for the Center for Innovation and Growth (CIG).
Sutton serves as independent political analyst for WEWS Channel 5, providing periodic analysis of local and national political developments and events.
Sutton also has 13 years of prior experience in nonprofit management, including work in civic education, services for homeless persons, and programming for juvenile offenders and at-risk youth.
Where We Meet
The Friday Public Affairs Lunch convenes each Friday when classes are in session, from 12:30 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. Our programs are open to all and no registration is required. We usually meet in the Dampeer Room of Kelvin Smith Library.
* Kelvin Smith Library requires all entrants to show identification when entering the building, unless they have a university i.d. that they can magnetically scan. We are sorry if that seems like a hassle, but it has been Library policy for a while in response to security concerns. Please do not complain to the library staff at the entrance, who are just doing their jobs.
Parking Possibilities
The most convenient parking is the lot underneath Severance Hall. We regret that it is not free. From that lot there is an elevator up to street level (labeled as for the Thwing Center); it is less than 50 yards from that exit to the library entrance. You can get from the Severance garage to the library without going outside. Near the entry gates – just to the right if you were driving out – there is a door into a corridor. Walk down the corridor and there will be another door. Beyond that door you’ll find the entrance to an elevator which goes up to an entrance right inside the doors to Kelvin Smith Library.
Schedule of Friday Lunch Upcoming Topics and Speakers:
February 14: What to Do About Vaping??? With Erika Trapl, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Population and Quantitative Health Sciences and Associate Director, Prevention Research Center for Healthy Neighborhoods.
February 21: Are Nano-Particles the New Asbestos? With Katharine Van Tassell, J.D., Visiting Professor of Law.
February 28: China’s Belt and Road Initiative and China’s Record in Foreign Development. With Julia C. Strauss, Ph.D., Professor of Chinese Politics, University of London School of Oriental and African Studies.
March 6: The Racial Geography of Cleveland Heights. With Jessica A. Kelley, Ph.D., Professor of Sociology.
March 13: Spring Break
March 20: Taking Away the Car Keys (from seniors). With Weidi Qin, MSW, MPH, Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences.
March 27: China’s Tibet Dilemma at a Crossroads. With Melvyn C. Goldstein, Ph.D., John Reynolds Harkness Professor in Anthropology and Co-Director, Center for Research on Tibet.
April 3: Creating Army Officers for the 21st Century. With Lt. Col. Brian Ferguson, Professor of Military Science, John Carroll University.
April 10: What’s the Beef? The Controversy Over Health Effects of Red Meat. With Hope Barkoukis, Ph.D., Jack, Joseph and Morton Mandel Professor in Wellness and Preventive Care and Chair, Department of Nutrition.
April 17: Targeted Assassinations, and Other Red or Not-So-Red Lines. With Shannon French, Ph.D., Inamori Professor of Ethics and Director, Inamori International Center for Ethics and Excellence.
April 24: Regulating Content of Online Platforms. With Raymond Ku, J.D., Professor and Laura B. Chisholm Distinguished Research Scholar, CWRU School of Law. |
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February 2, 2020
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Upcoming Events
Governance of “Do-It-Yourself” Gene Editing
The Elena and Miles Zaremski Law Medicine Forum, a discussion with Maxwell J. Mehlman, J.D., Arthur E. Petersilge Professor of Law and Director of the Law-Medicine Center at the CWRU School of Law, Tuesday February 4, 2020, 12:00 p.m.-1:00 p.m., Moot Courtroom (A59), CWRU School of Law, 11075 East Blvd, Cleveland, OH 44106.
A large and highly heterogeneous group of individuals conducts genetic and genomic research outside of traditional corporate and academic settings. They can be an important source of innovation, but their activities largely take place beyond the purview of existing regulatory systems for promoting safe and ethical practices. Historically the gene-targeting technology available to non-traditional experimenters has been limited, and therefore they have attracted little regulatory attention. New techniques such as CRISPR-cas9, however, may create a need for alternate governance approaches. This lecture explores whether alternate governance approaches might be needed and, if so, what governance approaches would be most likely to enable non-traditional experiments to be conducted safely and ethically.
Building the Post-1949 State in China and Taiwan
A Global Currents Discussion with Julia Strauss, Ph.D., Professor of Chinese Politics, SOAS, University of London, Thursday February 27, 2020, 4:00 p.m., Tinkham Veale University Center, Room 134, 11038 Bellflower Rd., Cleveland, OH 44106. This program is made possible by the generosity of Ms. Eloise Briskin. Refreshments will be provided.
Building a new state is hard. A governing apparatus must be built, a populace convinced (not always willingly!) and a sense of what the state is and how it should act must make it intelligible to both its agents and citizens or subjects. How a state is built shapes its future – and is shaped by the past. Professor Strauss shows how somewhat similar challenges and inherited understandings led to both commonalities and differences in how authority was consolidated on both sides of the Straits. That has lessons for understanding both China and state-building.
Julia C. Strauss joined the faculty of the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) at the University of London in 1994, and currently serves as Professor of Chinese Politics. From 2002 – 2011 she also served as editor of The China Quarterly. Professor Strauss earned her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley, in 1992 and has published widely on 20th century state building and institutional development in China and Taiwan. This includes her new book, State Formation in China and Taiwan: Bureaucracy, Campaign and Performance (Cambridge University Press, 2019) as well as her previous Strong Institutions in Weak Polities: State Building in Republican China, 1927-1940 (Oxford University Press, 1998). She co-edited, with Donal B. Cruise O’Brien, Staging Politics: Power and Performance in Asia and Africa (I.B. Tauris, 2007). As part of her work with The China Quarterly, Professor Strauss also co-edited special volumes on China and Africa, China and Latin America, Gender in contemporary China, The History of the People’s Republic, and Culture in the Contemporary PRC.
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