Colin Swearingen, Ph.D. – Associate Professor of Political Science, John Carroll University

Dear Colleagues:

I guess it’s time to start talking about the 2024 elections.

“Super Tuesday,” after all will be the day after this announcement should go out. Then Ohio’s primary will be on March 19 and, unlike the presidential nomination sweepstakes on Super Tuesday, include at least two important races for which we don’t know the result in advance: the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator, and the Democratic nomination for Cuyahoga County Prosecutor. Beyond is the massive battle to win something resembling control of the federal government in November. What might happen and why?

Political analysts usually think in terms of two dynamics: the “fundamentals,” such as the condition of the economy, popularity of the incumbent president, any wars that might be going on; and “campaign effects,” such as how parties succeed in making their candidates look good and opponents bad, or raising the prominence of issues on which they have an advantage. This year the fundamentals are puzzling enough, since President Biden is far less popular than one might expect from the usual economic measures. But we also have less certainty about how the campaigns will work and are working, because of the dramatic changes in campaign technology. More and more advertising is on social media, but the content and targeting of advertising may be especially shaped, this year, by uses of generative Artificial Intelligence. That includes “deep-fake” fraudulent images and voice. AI has clear advantages and risks even without blatant deception. Meanwhile, lurking behind the question of “who will win” is whether the election result will be accepted by the losers. Social media are part of that question also, as the processes of social media appear to feed polarization while also providing platforms for inciting and organizing protest.

So it will be a pleasure to welcome Colin Swearingen to discuss puzzles and prospects. He is both a specialist in elections in general and doing new research on social media and AI in particular.

In-Person and Virtual Attendance

We will meet this week in our regular location, the Dampeer Room on the second floor of Kelvin Smith Library.

We continue also to offer the meetings on Zoom. We do require pre-registering so as to avoid “zoom-bombing.” The pre-registration link is posted below.

The discussion begins at 12:30 p.m., but the room should be open no later than Noon. We try to have beverages and refreshments set up soon after that. Participants should be able to sign on to Zoom also by Noon. But please remember not much will be happening online until the talk begins at 12:30 pm. Please also be prepared to show identification when entering Kelvin Smith Library.

Zoom participants should speak up when asked for questions or comments, or submit thoughts through Zoom’s chat function. Please keep yourself muted until you are choosing to speak.

Each week we will send out this newsletter with information about the topic. It will also include a link to register (for free) for the discussion. When you register, you will automatically receive from the Zoom system the link to join the meeting. If you do not get the newsletter, you should also be able to get the information each Monday by checking http://fridaylunch.case.edu Then if you choose you can use the contact form on that website to request the registration link.

This week’s Zoom link for registration is:

https://cwru.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEvc-mgrDwpHdRykiYJEDKGV3FrT115Cax8

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

Please also e-mail padg@case.edu if you have questions about arrangements or any suggestions. Or call at 216 368-2426 and we’ll try to get back to you.

Best wishes for safety and security for you and yours,

Joe White
Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy and Director, Center for Policy Studies

About Our Guest

Colin Swearingen graduated from Grove City College with a B.A. in Political Science in 2005. In 2010, he received his M.A. and later his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Oklahoma. He is currently an Associate Professor of Political Science at John Carroll University.

After completing his doctorate degree, Dr. Swearingen worked in Oklahoma City in the House of Representatives from 2010 to 2012 as a Research Analyst and a Geographic Information System, or GIS, Coordinator for Redistricting. In this position, he built a large database that helped him draw 101 State House districts; five congressional districts; and numerous county commissioner districts, school board districts, and career technology districts. He also worked closely with the Redistricting Committee Chairman and Subcommittee Chairmen to draw regional House District plans. Also in Oklahoma City, Dr. Swearingen staffed several legislative committees and fielded research questions on topics relating to redistricting, wildlife, veterans affairs, international relations, and tourism.

Dr. Swearingen teaches courses on Political Analysis, Political Science Research Methods, American Presidency, and Healthcare Access in Latin America, among others. Within the classroom, his other areas of expertise include American politics, elections, voting behavior, Congress, public administration, public management, budgeting, and geographic information systems.

* Kelvin Smith Library requires all entrants to show identification when entering the building, unless they have a university i.d. that they can magnetically scan. We are sorry if that seems like a hassle, but it has been Library policy for a while in response to security concerns. Please do not complain to the library staff at the entrance, who are just doing their jobs.

Schedule of Friday Lunch Upcoming Topics and Speakers:

March 15: Spring Break

March 22: Thinking About Generative AI. With Satya Sahoo, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Population and Quantitative Health Science and Director, Biomedical and Health Informatics Ph.D. Program.

March 29: The Impact of Neighborhood and Racial Violence on Black Youth Developmental Outcomes. With Dexter Voisin, Ph.D., Dean of the Jack, Joseph, and Morton Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences.

April 5: WTFentanyl? What We Need to Know About the Current Opioid Crisis. With Ryan Marino, MD, Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine and Psychiatry.

April 12: Conspiracy Theories and Climate Change Skepticism in Europe. With Andreas Sobisch, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Political Science, John Carroll University.

April 19: Why Our Children Struggle in School: Going Beyond the ADHD Metaphor. With Arthur Lavin MD, FAAP. Alternate Room: Kelvin Smith Library LL06

April 26: What Does It Mean for Us? Local Needs and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. With Howard Maier FAICP, Adjunct Professor of Political Science.