{"id":1123,"date":"2021-05-07T01:48:46","date_gmt":"2021-05-07T01:48:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/?p=1123"},"modified":"2024-06-10T01:49:55","modified_gmt":"2024-06-10T01:49:55","slug":"tipping-point-chinas-aging-and-shrinking-population","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/2021\/05\/07\/tipping-point-chinas-aging-and-shrinking-population\/","title":{"rendered":"Tipping Point? China\u2019s Aging (and Shrinking?) Population"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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\nCenter for Policy Studies
\nPublic Affairs Discussion Group<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Tipping Point? China\u2019s Aging (and Shrinking?) Population<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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\"headshot\"<\/p>\n

Lihong Shi, Ph.D. – Associate Professor of Anthropology at Case Western Reserve University<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
Friday May 7, 2021
\n12:30-1:30 p.m.
\nOnline Zoom Meeting<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Dear Colleagues:<\/p>\n

Last Tuesday,\u00a0The Financial Times<\/em>\u00a0headlined that,<\/span>\u00a0\u201cChina set to report first population decline in five decades.\u201d<\/span><\/a>\u00a0The subhead added, \u201cOfficials are preparing response to census data that should have been released five weeks ago.\u201d<\/p>\n

On Thursday, China\u2019s National Bureau of Statistics issued a statement that, \u201cAccording to our understanding, in 2020 China\u2019s population continued to grow.\u201d It gave no further details. An<\/span>\u00a0A.P. story<\/span><\/a>\u00a0added that, \u201cthe unusual decision to respond to the report by\u00a0The Financial Times<\/em>\u00a0reflected the issue\u2019s political sensitivity.\u201d<\/p>\n

Western environmentalists might wonder why a bit of population decline would be such a bad thing. In 1979, Teng Hsiao-Ping proclaimed the famous \u201cone child policy,\u201d so as to ensure that, \u201cthe fruits of economic growth are not consumed by population growth.\u201d But,<\/span>\u00a0as Professor Lihong Shi explained to this group five years ago<\/span><\/a>, the Chinese Communist Party abandoned that policy in 2015 because of worries that are common in more wealthy countries: that there will be too few workers to support retirees, and a stagnant or declining labor force could impede economic growth. Abandoning the one-child policy, however, is looking like too little, too late. China\u2019s population of women of prime child-bearing age<\/span>\u00a0is shrinking<\/span><\/a>, due to effects of that policy, while the costs of child-rearing make it look unattractive in many cities. So projections have long included an acceleration of population aging and slowdown or decline in population; but last week\u2019s maybe-news means that those events are coming more quickly than expected.<\/p>\n

The big difference between China and other countries, such as South Korea, is that China is growing old before growing as rich as those other countries. As<\/span>\u00a0a recent conference document<\/span><\/a>\u00a0states the case,<\/p>\n

\u201cChina has come halfway through its economic and social modernization. It is about to reach high-income levels, but has yet to become a developed economy; it is urbanizing rapidly, but rural roots remain strong; education levels are rapidly improving, with the country becoming a technological leader in some areas, while overall productivity remains low; women are increasingly postponing marriage, but not foregoing it; traditional care for the elderly is in flux, but has yet to disappear\u2026 How China addresses the multiple dimensions of ageing will determine its future growth rate, the health of its public finances, the shape of its families and villages, and even its politics.\u201d<\/p>\n

The political challenges range from the fact that some measures that would look reasonable in international comparisons (such as raising a very low retirement age) might be less than popular, to very different dimensions of the question \u2013 such as whether China\u2019s leaders view a shrinking population as both a sign that China\u2019s not such a rising power, and a visible policy failure.<\/p>\n

Whether or not the\u00a0FT<\/em>\u00a0was right, or the government is lying, China looks like it is headed towards a declining population, and sooner rather than later.<\/strong>\u00a0Is that really happening? Why? How is the government responding, and how could it respond? Is this a good thing or a bad thing, and how? Demographic trends lie beneath many major changes in politics, economics, and social life. Join us as Professor Shi shares her expertise for discussion.<\/span><\/p>\n

Signing In<\/h3>\n

This semester’s discussions will begin at 12:30 p.m., the usual time. The meeting will be set up as from Noon to 2:00 p.m., so people are not all signing in at the same time and to allow for the discussion to run a bit long.\u00a0Each week we will send out this newsletter with information about the topic. It will also include a link to register (for free) for the discussion.<\/strong>\u00a0Every Monday the same information will be posted on our website:<\/span>\u00a0fridaylunch.case.edu<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

If you register, you will automatically receive from the Zoom system the link to join the meeting. This week’s link for registration is:<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/cwru.zoom.us\/meeting\/register\/tJwscuyhrjsvEtevbyykiz5yFC7itcueRxuk<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.<\/p>\n

Please e-mail<\/span>\u00a0padg@case.edu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0if you have questions about how the Zoom version of the Friday Lunch will work or any other suggestions. Or call at 216 368-2426 and we’ll try to get back to you. We are very pleased to be partnering this semester with the<\/span>\u00a0Siegal Lifelong Learning Program<\/span><\/a><\/strong>\u00a0to share information about the discussions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Summer Break!<\/h3>\n

This will be the last \u201cFriday Lunch\u201d of Spring 2021 semester. Our discussions will resume with the first week of Fall 2021 semester, on August 27.<\/p>\n

It seems quite likely that we will be able to resume in person, so with cookies again. That would be nice, but it also has been nice to be able to include lots of people, some of them old friends, by Zoom. We will have to figure out if there is a way to continue that. \u201cDual delivery\u201d with some people in the room and others on Zoom, does not work well for classes. But there may be work arounds, and I will be looking for them. At a minimum it should be possible for the main talk to be broadcast; the problem is how to have a discussion in which people on Zoom can hear the people in the room. I\u2019ll appreciate any suggestions!<\/p>\n

I would also appreciate suggestions about speakers and topics. I know we will try to have some discussions of Life After (I hope) COVID. But please send directly to me any ideas, to<\/span>\u00a0joseph.white@case.edu<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Until we meet again, please be healthy and safe and even have some fun in the Summer.<\/p>\n

Best wishes,<\/p>\n

Joe White
\nLuxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy and Director, Center for Policy Studies<\/span><\/p>\n

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About Our Guest<\/span><\/h3>\n

Lihong Shi<\/strong>\u00a0studies reproductive politics and family and gender relations, particularly reproductive choice and family change under China\u2019s birth-control policy. She examines an emerging reproductive choice in rural China where a large number of couples have decided to have only one daughter even though the modified policy allows them to have a second child. By delving into the socioeconomic factors contributing to this drastic reproductive decision, she looks at significant changes occurring within the Chinese families. She is also interested in demographic consequences of China\u2019s birth-control policy, such as population aging and sex ratio imbalance.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Visit the\u00a0Public Affairs Discussion Group Web Site.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Center for Policy Studies | Mather House 111 | 11201 Euclid Avenue |
\nCleveland, Ohio 44106-7109 |\u00a0Phone: 216.368.6730 |\u00a0padg@case.edu<\/u><\/span><\/a>\u00a0|
\nPart of the:\u00a0College of Arts and Sciences<\/u><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a9 2021 Case Western Reserve University |
\nCleveland, Ohio 44106 | 216.368.2000 |\u00a0legal notice<\/u><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Center for Policy Studies
\nPublic Affairs Discussion Group<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tipping Point? China\u2019s Aging (and Shrinking?) Population<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lihong Shi, Ph.D. – Associate Professor of Anthropology at Case Western Reserve University<\/strong><\/p>\n

Friday May 7, 2021
\n12:30-1:30 p.m.
\nOnline Zoom Meeting<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dear Colleagues:<\/p>\n

Last Tuesday,\u00a0The Financial Times<\/em>\u00a0headlined that,\u00a0\u201cChina set to report first population decline in five decades.\u201d<\/a>\u00a0The subhead added, \u201cOfficials are preparing response to census data that should have been released five weeks ago.\u201d<\/p>\n

On Thursday,<\/p>\n

Continue reading… Tipping Point? China\u2019s Aging (and Shrinking?) Population<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1123"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1123"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1123\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1125,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1123\/revisions\/1125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}