{"id":1634,"date":"2024-12-06T02:16:34","date_gmt":"2024-12-06T02:16:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/?p=1634"},"modified":"2025-10-26T02:22:39","modified_gmt":"2025-10-26T02:22:39","slug":"the-housing-affordability-crisis-causes-and-consequences","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/2024\/12\/06\/the-housing-affordability-crisis-causes-and-consequences\/","title":{"rendered":"The Housing Affordability Crisis: Causes and Consequences"},"content":{"rendered":"Center for Policy Studies Public Affairs Discussion Group – The Housing Affordability Crisis: Causes and Consequences. With Daniel Shoag, Ph.D., Associate Professor and Chair, Department of Economics.<\/title><\/p>\n<table align=\"center\" width=\"640\" style=\"padding:3px\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"702\" align=\"center\" valign=\"top\" style=\"margin: -1.9px 2px 2px 2px;padding:5px\">\n<table style=\"padding:px\" align=\"center\" width=\"637\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"629\" colspan=\"3\" valign=\"top\" bgcolor=\"#ffffff\" style=\"margin: 2px 2px 2px 2px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px\">\n<p style=\"width: 100%;text-align: left;margin: 3px 0px 0px;font-size: 24px\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/artscimedia.case.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/238\/2024\/06\/07135207\/cas_logo_newsletters2.jpg\" alt=\"CAS\" longdesc=\"http:\/\/policy.case.edu\" height=\"100\" width=\"328\"><br \/><strong><font face=\"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif\" color=\"#0a304e\">Center for Policy Studies<br \/>Public Affairs Discussion Group<\/font><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<table>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\" valign=\"top\" bgcolor=\"#ffffff\" style=\"margin: -4px -4px -4px -4px;text-align: center;font-size: 0px\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<table style=\"margin: -1.9px 2px 2px 2px\" align=\"center\" width=\"640\">\n<tr>\n<td width=\"502\" valign=\"top\" style=\"padding: 3px\">\n<table width=\"627\">\n<tr>\n<td width=\"98%\" height=\"33\" align=\"left\" valign=\"top\" style=\"margin: 0px 2px 2px 2px;font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size: 24px;padding: 1px\"><strong><font color=\"#0a304e\">The Housing Affordability Crisis: Causes and Consequences<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<table width=\"627\">\n<tr>\n<td width=\"70%\" align=\"left\" valign=\"top\" style=\"margin: 0px 2px 2px 2px;font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;padding: 2px\"><img align=\"left\" src=\"https:\/\/artscimedia.case.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/238\/2025\/10\/26022040\/shoag_daniel3.jpg\" hspace=\"3\"><\/p>\n<p> <font color=\"#0a304e\"><strong>Daniel Shoag, Ph.D. – Associate Professor and Chair, Department of Economics<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<table>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"70%\" valign=\"top\" bgcolor=\"FFFFFF\" style=\"margin: 2px 2px 2px 2px;font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;padding: 2px\"><font color=\"#0a304e\"><strong>Friday December 6, 2024<br \/>\n\t12:30-1:30 p.m.<br \/>Meeting Both In-Person and by Zoom<br \/>\nDampeer Room, Second Floor of Kelvin Smith Library<\/strong><\/font><font size=\"3\" color=\"#990000\"><strong>*<\/strong><\/font><br \/>\n<font color=\"#0a304e\"><strong>Case Western Reserve University<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#0a304e\">Dear Colleagues:<\/font><\/p>\n<p>\t<font color=\"#0a304e\">When this week\u2019s discussion was scheduled at the beginning of the semester, we didn\u2019t know that one consequence of high housing costs would be the election of Donald Trump as president.<\/p>\n<p>Other factors mattered, of course. But it seems clear that a large part of voter concern about inflation was the price of housing. <strong>\u201cMany of the counties that swung most dramatically toward Donald Trump on election day were also among America\u2019s toughest housing markets<\/strong>, according to an analysis of election returns and the NBC News Home Buyer Index.\u201d<\/font> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/data-graphics\/housing-market-trump-win-2024-election-rcna179153\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><font color=\"#0a304e\"><u>NBC News\u2019 report<\/u><\/font><\/a> <font color=\"#0a304e\">quoted Columbia University political science professor Robert Shapiro that, \u201cvoters were facing economic hardship to an extent that was not fully appreciated by the Democrats, by the administration \u2013 the Harris campaign picked up on it, but it was too little, too late. And the price of housing figures into this heavily.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Most analyses emphasize that housing became less affordable because, over a number of years but especially since the pandemic, construction of new housing units declined. In the words of<\/font> <a href=\"https:\/\/bipartisanpolicy.org\/report\/exploring-the-affordable-housing-shortages-impact-on-american-workers-jobs-the-economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><font color=\"#0a304e\"><u>one analysis<\/u><\/font><\/a><font color=\"#0a304e\">, \u201cthe decade immediately after the Great Recession saw less housing construction than in any previous decade since the 1960s.\u201d A<\/font> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/make-it-count-measuring-our-housing-supply-shortage\/?utm_campaign=Economic%20Studies%20Bulletin&utm_medium=email&utm_content=336774736&utm_source=hs_email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><font color=\"#0a304e\"><u>Brookings Institution study<\/u><\/font><\/a> <font color=\"#0a304e\">published last week estimates that in 2023 there were 4.9 million fewer housing units than there would have been if the level was comparable to 2006. If supply doesn\u2019t keep pace with demand, prices should go up.<\/p>\n<p>But that just leads to some further questions, as Daniel Shoag has pointed out. For example, high prices as a result of production shortfalls should lead to more production, but that hasn\u2019t quite happened. Ultimately, prices should equilibrate to something resembling the price of producing a product; but prices have increased distinctly more than construction costs. The cost of housing also has major further effects on the economy. For example, it seems to have made it much harder for people to move from lower-wage areas to higher-wage areas, as they cannot imagine paying for housing in the latter.<\/p>\n<p>Both presidential campaigns had<\/font> <a href=\"https:\/\/bipartisanpolicy.org\/blog\/comparing-the-housing-proposals-of-the-2024-presidential-campaigns\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><font color=\"#0a304e\"><u>a series of proposals<\/u><\/font><\/a> <font color=\"#0a304e\">to make housing more affordable, but lord knows how well either\u2019s would work. Harris proposed to build 3 million more units (how?), while Trump proposed to reduce zoning restrictions (which isn\u2019t a federal government policy). Any subsidies to make it easier for first-time home buyers (a common idea) might mostly raise prices further.<\/p>\n<p><strong>So what is going on, and what is to be done?<\/strong> Join us as Professor Shoag reviews a series of causes and consequences.<\/p>\n<p>Best wishes for safety and security for you and yours,<\/p>\n<p> Joe White<br \/>\n Luxenberg Family Professor of Public Policy and Director, Center for Policy Studies<\/font>\n <\/p>\n<hr width=\"100%\" style=\"padding:0px\" \/>\n<h3><font color=\"#0a304e\">About Our Guest<\/font><\/h3>\n<p><font color=\"#0a304e\"><strong>Daniel Shoag<\/strong> is an associate professor and the department chair in the department of economics at at the Weatherhead School of Management. His research focuses on state and local government finance, worker signaling and the hiring process, and regional and urban economics. Shoag\u2019s research has been published in major academic journals and has been featured in, among other outlets, <em> The New York Times<\/em>, <em>Bloomberg<\/em>, <em>The Washington Post<\/em>, and <em>The Wall Street Journal<\/em>. He was selected as one of <em>Forbes<\/em> magazine\u2019s 30 under 30 in 2012. Professor Shoag received his BA and Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.<\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<table>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\" valign=\"top\" bgcolor=\"#ffffff\" style=\"margin: -4px -4px -4px -4px;text-align: center;font-size: 0px\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<table style=\"margin: -4px 2px 2px 2px;padding: 0px\" align=\"center\" width=\"640\">\n<tr>\n<td style=\"margin-top: 0px;padding: 0px;font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size: 14px\">\n<p align=\"center\"> Visit the <a href=\"http:\/\/fridaylunch.case.edu\"><font color=\"#004480\">Public Affairs Discussion Group Web Site.<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"> Center for Policy Studies | Mather House<br \/>\n 111 | 11201 Euclid Avenue |<br \/>\n Cleveland, Ohio 44106-7109 | Phone: 216.368.6730 | <a href=\"mailto:padg@case.edu\"><font color=\"#004480\"><u>padg@case.edu<\/u><\/font><\/a> |<br \/>Part of the: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.case.edu\/artsci\"><font color=\"#004480\"><u>College of Arts and Sciences<\/u><\/font><\/a><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">© 2024 Case Western Reserve University |<br \/> Cleveland, Ohio<br \/>\n 44106 | 216.368.2000 | <a href=\"http:\/\/www.case.edu\/legal.htm\"><font color=\"#004480\"><u>legal notice<\/u><\/font><\/a><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Center for Policy Studies Public Affairs Discussion Group – The Housing Affordability Crisis: Causes and Consequences. With Daniel Shoag, Ph.D., Associate Professor and Chair, Department of Economics.<\/p>\n<p style=\"width: 100%;text-align: left;margin: 3px 0px 0px;font-size: 24px\"><strong>Center for Policy StudiesPublic Affairs Discussion Group<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> <strong>The Housing Affordability Crisis: Causes and Consequences<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> <strong>Daniel Shoag, Ph.D. – Associate Professor and Chair, Department of Economics<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday December 6, 2024<br \/>\n\t12:30-1:30 p.m.Meeting Both In-Person and by Zoom<br \/>\nDampeer Room, Second Floor of Kelvin Smith Library<\/strong><strong>*<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Case Western Reserve University<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Dear Colleagues:<\/p>\n<p>\tWhen this week\u2019s discussion was scheduled at the beginning of the semester,<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/2024\/12\/06\/the-housing-affordability-crisis-causes-and-consequences\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading… <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">The Housing Affordability Crisis: Causes and Consequences<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1634"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/101"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1634"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1634\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1638,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1634\/revisions\/1638"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artsci.case.edu\/fridaylunch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}